When Bitcoin (BTC) was still below USD 14,000, and Ethereum (ETH) was fluctuating around USD 400 last October, the bulk of the respondents in a survey by Kraken Intelligence hoped that BTC would hit USD 20,000 in 2021 while ETH will at least be trading higher than the price in October. However, the median estimated BTC price in 2021 is USD 25,000 and USD 900 in the case of ETH.
November came, and BTC hit USD 19,800, and ETH exceeded USD 630.
Kraken Intelligence sent its second VIP client sentiment survey for 2020, out of which about 72% were investors or traders, 18% institutions (such as a broker, custodian, hedge fund, venture capitalist, etc.), 4% crypto service providers or miners, and others. There were 323 respondents in total.
After directing the respondents for their 2021 bitcoin and ether price targets, the organization determined that the average 2021 price target for bitcoin is USD 36,602, while the median price target is USD 25,000.
The commonly submitted target was USD 20,000. Moreover:
- 61% of respondents believed bitcoin would meet, if not exceed USD 20,000 in 2021;
- 20% of respondents reported a price target ≥ USD 50,000;
- 8% of respondents provided a price target ≥ USD 100,000.
By the time the report came out, bitcoin had then hit a series of all-time highs, improving since. It’s now (10:37 UTC) standing at USD 19,105, having dropped 3% in a day and 1% in a week.
Kraken Intelligence stated that,
“Participants appear to be even more optimistic of ether’s performance next year.”
They added that:
- Just under 92% think ether will at least be trading higher than the current price in 2021;
- 59% said ether would, at least, hit USD 800;
- 22% said ether would surpass its previous all-time high of USD 1,595 set in early-January 2018.
ETH is currently trading at nearly USD 599. It sank 5.3% in a day and 0.7% in a week.
As for the survey-over-survey outcomes, when analyzing their first half of the 2020 sentiment survey with the second half one, the average price target fell from USD 22,866 in H1 to USD 14,886 in H2 for BTC and from USD 810 to USD 549 for ETH. The average 2021 price target for BTC came in at USD 36,602 and USD 1,451 for ETH.
The newest survey respondents were also requested what they’re most enthusiastic about over the next 12 months. Nearly 23% said “adoption,” with more than half of these pointing specifically to further adoption by institutions and corporates. 19% cited “improvements in [E]thereum,” particularly in terms of its scalability.
In the third place are developments in decentralized finance (DeFi), “despite the fact that the vast majority of respondents indicated that they don’t own any DeFi tokens, hadn’t borrowed from or lent to a liquidity pool, and haven’t been using decentralized exchanges.”
This response said the report has beaten ‘Bitcoin improvements’ with a 14% share. They added that,
“This suggests that market participants are optimistic of the road ahead for the ecosystem despite an ongoing ‘cooling off period’,”
As for other conclusions, the report emphasized that:
- Approximately 66% of respondents believe the cryptoasset market is in a bull market;
- 26% believe we’re in a bear market, and 9% are unsure;
- in comparison, in Q1 2020, 44% of respondents stated that they thought we were in a bull market, and 24% signaled a bear market;
- Asked to list their favorite altcoins, the most commonly cited altcoins were ETH, Polkadot (DOT), Chainlink (LINK), Monero (XMR), and XRP.
- Asked what DeFi token they owned, most respondents listed uniswap (UNI), chainlink (LINK), yearn.finance (YFI), kava.io (KAVA), and kyber network (KNC);
- Asked about their usage of liquidity pools and decentralized exchanges (DEX), 93% and 76% of respondents indicated that they had not borrowed from or lent to a DeFi liquidity pool, respectively, and their DEX usage was virtually non-existent.
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